Is the Rolex Market Crashing? Pre-Owned Price Trends Explained

The big question circulating right now is this: Is the Rolex market crashing?

The short answer – not for the best watches. In fact, for certain references, the opposite is happening.

While many people lump “the Rolex market” into one big category, what we’re seeing in late 2025 is far more nuanced. Yes, prices have softened in some areas, especially for modern references with high production numbers. But when you zoom in on really exceptional five-digit Rolex sports models, the story shifts dramatically.

Let’s break down what’s actually happening, why supply is getting tight, and where we believe the smart money is going for pre-owned Rolex right now.

Five-Digit Sports References: A Clear Shift in the Market

Over the past few months, we’ve noticed a very specific trend:

Top-tier examples of five-digit Rolex sports models are becoming extremely scarce.

Take this 2001 Rolex GMT-Master II 16710 we’ve just taken into stock – a full set, hardly worn, genuinely world-class. A few years ago you could hop onto Chrono24 and scroll through dozens of 16710s. Today? There are only three comparable examples in the entire UK. None better than ours.

This isn’t an isolated case.

Here’s another: a 2010 Rolex Explorer II 16570 Polar, engraved rehaut, 3186 movement, virtually unworn. A perfect full set. As of early December 2025, it is the only one available in this condition in the UK on Chrono24 or eBay. That simply wasn’t the case six months ago.

And it continues…

• 2009 Submariner Date 16610 – only six comparable UK listings (including ours).
• 2004 Flat 4 Kermit 16610LV – one full-set example in this condition in the UK. Ours.

These are watches that collectors consider “endgame” examples – clean, crisp, unpolished or lightly worn, complete sets. And they are disappearing from the open market.

Why This Is Happening: Supply, Demand and Reality

Despite what some blogs and commentators say, the watch market still follows the oldest rule in business:

When supply is low and demand is high, prices rise.

For mass-produced current references, there are simply lots and lots of examples in circulation. So when demand softens – even slightly – sellers compete, prices slide, and values dip.

But for the best five-digit references?

• Supply has shrunk dramatically
• Collectors still want them
• Comparable examples are almost impossible to find

When a watch becomes genuinely scarce, the pricing power flips back to the seller. That’s exactly what we’re seeing.

Is the Rolex Market Crashing? Pre-Owned Price Trends Explained (The Real Answer)

The “crash” people talk about applies mainly to:

• Over-supplied modern references
• Mid-condition watches
• Pieces traded heavily during the 2021–2022 hype bubble

But for exceptional five-digit sports Rolexes?

We’re now entering a period where prices are beginning to firm up and in many cases, rise again.

When there are only one, three, or six examples of a reference available nationwide, buyers who want the best don’t have the luxury of waiting around.

What This Means for Buyers: Don’t Wait Too Long

If you’ve been sitting on the sidelines wondering whether to buy, here’s the key insight:

It’s a very good time to buy – if you choose the right watch.

Focus on pieces that are:

• In genuinely exceptional condition
• Full sets
• Early or late production years
• Five-digit sports references with strong collector demand
• Scarce in the current marketplace

If this trend continues and we believe it will, the same watch you can buy today could cost significantly more in 6–12 months.

Final Thoughts

The Rolex market isn’t crashing – it’s splitting.

Mass-market models may fluctuate with economic sentiment, but the best examples of five-digit sports references are becoming harder to source and more valuable as a result.

If you found this breakdown helpful, head over to our YouTube channel where we take a closer look at these pieces in hand and share more insights into the evolving pre-owned Rolex landscape.

You can also explore our current selection of pre-owned Rolex watches available at Oakleigh Watches.